The Federation of American Scientists removed an unclassified report on anti-missile technology from its Web site after receiving a letter from the Department of Homeland Security warning of “further appropriate actions” if the report was not removed.

The report, titled “Department of Homeland Security Counter-MANPADS Program Summary,” outlined the DHS Science and Technology Directorate’s progress in implementing a program to outfit commercial airliners with technology that would defeat an attack by shoulder-fired surface to air missiles, also known as Man-Portable Air Defense Systems.

While unclassified, the report bore the marking For Official Use Only, a designation of sensitive but unclassified material also used by the Department of Defense.

“The Report has never been released by DHS to the public because it contains sensitive information such as the transition of military technology for potential civil use, systems performance of the prototype systems being developed by DHS and its partners, and the reliability of such prototype systems,” wrote (PDF) DHS deputy associate general counsel William H. Anderson. “Due to the sensitive nature of the Report, I request that your organization immediately remove the Report from its website.”

Steven Aftergood, head of the FAS government secrecy project, said he had no desire to be “a First Amendment martyr.”

Because, the DHS letter continued: “If the report is not removed from your Web site within two business days, we will consider further appropriate actions necessary to protect the information contained in the report.”

Mr. Aftergood said his decision to acquiesce to the government’s request was influenced by a recent ruling in a criminal case against two former lobbyists for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Steven Rosen and Keith Weissman. Judge Thomas Ellis III declared that individuals could be prosecuted for obtaining or distributing closely held information related to national defense, even if it is unclassified.

Asked if the keeping the anti-missile report on the Web could have triggered criminal charges, Mr. Aftergood said, “Until last week, I would have laughed and said, ‘Of course not.’” — New York Sun

Wait a minute, is this really closely held national defense information? Let’s take a closer look at just what the government is hiding.

The State Department estimates that since 1970, over 40 civilian aircraft have been hit by MANPADS, resulting in 25 plane crashes and over 600 deaths.

Terrorists are very interested in getting hold of MANPADS, and reports out of Iraq and Afghanistan indicate that some of them may already have the technology and be using it against the U.S. military. For instance, in 2004, a DHL cargo aircraft departing Baghdad was shot down by a surface-to-air missile, resulting in the loss of the aircraft but no fatalities.

What the government normally doesn’t want to own up to, though, is the fact that virtually all of these attacks have taken place in war-torn countries in Africa and the Middle East. It simply has never happened in the U.S., unless you believe certain conspiracy theories about TWA Flight 800, but that’s beside the point.

The possibility that someone might shoot down a plane over the skies of Chicago, minuscule as it is, motivated Congress to mandate that the Department of Homeland Security develop Counter-MANPADS technology and make it feasible for deployment on commercial airliners. To date the program has sucked in $233 million of taxpayer money, and the sensitive information that DHS doesn’t want to get out to the public is this:

The Counter-MANPADS program sucks.

The technology adds significant weight to the airplane, a cost that’s much more significant when it’s a smaller plane providing regional service. This adds to the airline’s fuel costs.

Not only is it going to cost the government billions of dollars to develop, it’s going to cost the airlines billions of dollars as well in maintenance and added fuel costs, a cost they’ll have to pass on to air travelers in the form of higher ticket prices.

And the technology isn’t foolproof. Counter-MANPADS systems which emit light in the infrared spectrum to confuse inbound missiles have blind spots which can be exploited by those with knowledge of the blind spots, or even without the knowledge but with sheer luck.

In addition, current regulations might prohibit a more targeted approach to deployment, where the technology would be used only on planes flying to or from the very few areas where such an attack is more likely to occur, as much of the technology remains restricted.

So we have a multi-billion dollar program to deploy a technology on U.S. commercial airliners which it’s not even clear we have a need for here, since the actual risk of such an attack on U.S. soil, or even the soil of nations not involved in active conflict, is so small you’re more likely to wreck your car, be struck by lightning and die of cancer all at the same time.

In the meantime, you can read a nice unclassified Congressional Research Service report (PDF) on Counter-MANPADS which, to my knowledge, the government has made no attempt to suppress, and provided valuable background material for this report.

And if you’re really good, you might find a copy of the censored report on the Internet, as it was reportedly downloaded more than 4,000 times before being removed from the FAS web site.